What will light duty vehicles be running on in the future?

As concentration thresholds of air pollutants are increasingly exceeded, cities are gradually establishing restricted traffic zones. Some cities, such as Paris, are taking more drastic measures: eradicating diesel engines by 2024 and gasoline engines by 2030. These announcements are prompting many players to question the development potential of alternative energy carriers to traditional fuels: gas, electricity and, in the longer term, hydrogen.

In France, markets for electric vehicles and natural gas-powered vehicles (called CNG in its compressed form) are developing for both passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles. Development of these market segments is driven by economic incentives, infrastructure development and the growing attractiveness of the positive externalities brought by these vehicles (environmental, health, noise, etc.). At the crossroads of these two market segments are light duty vehicles (LDVs). LDVs represent a key logistical link and an essential asset for the commercial, craft and industrial sectors, for which few motorisation alternatives have been studied to date.

Enea has thus focused on LDVs for commercial use with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) less than or equal to 3.5 tonnes. Enea modelled the economics of this type of vehicle according to the choice of powertrain and interviewed users, manufacturers, investors and representatives of the various sectors.

Today, the 3.6 million LDVs in circulation in France for professional use travel an average of 17,500 km/year, 85% of which is on intra- or inter-city routes. Alternative fuels are still very underrepresented: of the 2017 registrations, only 1.5% of LDVs used alternative fuels (electricity, natural gas vehicle, etc.) compared with 96% running on diesel and 2.5% on gasoline.

Economic modelling conducted by Enea shows that in cities, small electric or CNG LDVs (1.7-ton GVWR) are both competitive in 2022 compared to diesel (tCO2 lower by -15% for electric and -9% for CNG).

The TCO of the 1.7-ton electric LDVs modelled in urban areas is lower than that of diesel in 2022 and equivalent to that of CNG, provided that the current support for electric vehicles is maintained. The 3.5 tonne electric LDVs used in cities and the electric LDVs used in rural areas achieve the same TCO as diesel LDVs in 2022 and are less attractive than CNG.

The CNG LDV will be more competitive than diesel in 2022 even without direct public support and regardless of its use. In the very short term, gasoline may prove to be a natural alternative to diesel for downstream traffic, but its return may be made difficult by future traffic restrictions and its high CO2 emissions.

In the years to come, the battle for alternative fuels for LDVs will be strongly influenced by the directions taken by private individuals and corporate fleets with respect to light electric vehicles and by road transport with respect to gas-powered trucks, and in particular by the resulting refuelling infrastructures.

CNG and electric are two relevant alternatives to diesel in the short and medium term, and depending on the uses and constraints of LDV owners, the choice will be made between one or the other. Many LDV owners are willing to switch their diesel LDV(s) to an electric or CNG LDV, subject to acceptable economic and operational performance. The firsts to "take the plunge" will be users of large private or public fleets that can more easily reorganise their routes and achieve economies of scale, rental companies to meet their customers' requirements, but also companies that see clean mobility as a way to maintain their brand image.

While LDVs have relevant alternatives to diesel that will soon be competitive for many uses, their development will require, for the former, continued public aid, and for the latter, the involvement of public authorities to give clear guidance to the players in the sector. Decisions on the conditions for restricting traffic in cities will also play a role in guiding these two sectors.